May 27, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 27 17:30:25 UTC 2022 (20220527 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220527 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220527 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 63,940 376,881 Rapid City, SD...Mitchell, SD...Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...Spearfish, SD...
MARGINAL 247,475 27,667,758 New York, NY...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220527 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220527 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 25,608 103,678 Pierre, SD...
15 % 63,877 376,887 Rapid City, SD...Mitchell, SD...Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...Spearfish, SD...
5 % 212,851 26,936,399 New York, NY...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220527 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 63,896 376,929 Rapid City, SD...Mitchell, SD...Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...Spearfish, SD...
5 % 203,844 25,832,377 New York, NY...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
   SPC AC 271730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
   South Dakota and Nebraska on Saturday. Large hail and severe gusts
   should be the primary severe hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and
   Northeast on Saturday, while upper ridging shifts eastward over
   parts of the Plains, Upper Midwest, and central Canada. Large-scale
   upper troughing is forecast to amplify over the western states
   through the period, with multiple low-amplitude perturbations
   expected to move across the Great Basin and northern/central
   Rockies.

   ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
   A dryline should be in place over the northern/central High Plains
   Saturday afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves over the
   central Rockies, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
   initially develop over the higher terrain before spreading eastward.
   Isolated severe winds may occur with this high-based convection
   across parts of central WY, even though instability will remain
   weak. Eventually, thunderstorms will move into a slightly more moist
   airmass across far eastern WY into western SD and the NE Panhandle.
   Steep low-level lapse rates will support severe wind gusts, while
   steepened mid-level lapse rates also foster 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   Isolated large hail may occur with any supercells that form, as
   30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should support a mix of multicells
   and supercells. With time, convection will probably grow upscale
   into a small bowing cluster as it moves eastward across parts of SD
   and north-central NE Saturday evening. Isolated significant severe
   wind gusts may occur as the mode becomes mainly linear.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Isolated thunderstorms may develop along and just east of a surface
   dryline late Saturday afternoon across parts of northwest TX into
   western OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass
   should promote very steep low-level lapse rates, and the presence of
   steep mid-level lapse rates should also foster moderate instability.
   This region will be on the southern fringe of stronger mid-level
   flow associated with an approaching upper trough. Still, 20-30 kt of
   deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization with any
   thunderstorms that can form. Both severe wind gusts and hail may
   occur as convection spreads eastward through the early evening
   before dissipating over western OK as inhibition rapidly increases.

   ...Northeast...
   Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should occur
   across parts of the Northeast ahead of a front. Instability is
   forecast to remain fairly weak owing to poor mid-level lapse rates,
   with MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced
   mid-level flow ahead of an upper trough will allow for some
   organization as thunderstorms develop by late Saturday afternoon.
   Both marginally severe hail and isolated strong to damaging winds
   may occur as convection moves eastward towards the Atlantic Coast
   through Saturday afternoon.

   ..Gleason.. 05/27/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z