SPC AC 161742

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD TO
   EASTERN TENNESSEE/GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Friday across parts of
   the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and Southeast. 
   More isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the New
   England vicinity, and portions of the northern Rockies/High Plains.
   Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats.

   ...Portions of the Southeast from Virginia to the southern
   Appalachians/Carolinas...
   A cold front is forecast to shift southeastward across Mid-Atlantic
   region/central Appalachians/Ohio Valley, as a mid-level trough digs
   southeastward across the Great Lakes and eastern U.S. through the
   period.  Afternoon heating of a moist airmass south of the front
   will yield moderate destabilization, and subsequent thunderstorm
   activity across broad area extending from the Middle and Southern
   Atlantic Coastal areas westward across the Tennessee Valley/Mid
   South.

   As in prior days, locations of greater storm coverage remain
   difficult to specify -- with CAM solutions reflecting this -- as is
   usually the case in warm-season northwesterly flow-type scenarios. 
   With that said, given ample flow aloft and a favorable thermodynamic
   environment expected across this region, severe weather --
   likely/primarily in the form of locally damaging winds -- is
   evident.  An upgrade to SLGT risk is being included across portions
   of the area, mainly east of the Appalachians, as storms increase in
   coverage and spread southeastward through the afternoon and evening
   hours.

   ...New England vicinity...
   Modest airmass destabilization is expected ahead of a cold front
   that is forecast to sweep across New England through the day.  While
   limited instability should prove to be somewhat of a limiting
   factor, ascent ahead of the advancing upper system -- focused along
   the front -- will support a gradual increase in convection through
   the day.  With strong deep-layer flow across the region, organized
   cells -- and possibly a cluster or two of fast-moving storms -- will
   be possible.  At this time, will maintain only 5%/MRGL categorical
   risk, but an upgrade to SLGT may be needed, if greater
   destabilization can occur in the wake of expected convective
   activity prior to the start of the period. 

   ...Northern High Plains vicinity...
   Daytime heating will contribute to afternoon destabilization across
   the High Plains area, particularly from portions of eastern Wyoming
   into Montana where greater low-level moisture is expected in the
   vicinity of a remnant/northwest-to-southeast surface front over the
   area.  Weak disturbances rotating northward across the area within
   enhanced southerly deep-layer wind field between the upper low near
   the West Coast and the expansive ridge over the central U.S. should
   enhance ascent -- contributing to isolated convective development. 
   Given ample shear -- aided by low-level southeasterlies near and
   north of the surface front -- a few stronger/severe storms will
   likely evolve, accompanied by attendant risks for hail and locally
   damaging wind gusts into the evening hours.

   ...Northern Idaho/northwestern Montana vicinity...
   Large-scale ascent ahead of the upper low -- focused near surface
   low pressure progged to evolve over the northern Idaho/northwestern
   Montana vicinity, will likely support scattered storm development
   during the afternoon as the airmass diurnally destabilizes. 
   Favorably strong/diffluent upper-level flow expected across the area
   will likely support a few stronger/organized updrafts, which would
   be capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts during the
   afternoon and evening hours.

   ..Goss.. 06/16/2022

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