Aug 8, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 8 06:00:17 UTC 2022 (20220808 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220808 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220808 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220808 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220808 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220808 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Daytime thunderstorms will be possible across much of the CONUS, but
   little severe weather is anticipated.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper high will remain centered over CO while a shortwave trough
   moves southeastward across MB and ON, bringing strong northwest flow
   across the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes. A front will
   stretch from the central Plains into the OH Valley and across
   southern New England, providing a focus for scattered daytime
   storms. The aforementioned strong flow aloft will remain well behind
   this front, and therefore have little effect on severe potential
   along the boundary. However, ample low-level moisture and MUCAPE
   over 1000 J/kg will favor pulse storms, and isolated strong gusts
   may occur along the length of the boundary.

   To the west, an upper low over the Pacific will drift toward coastal
   northern CA and OR, providing moderate meridional flow aloft to the
   region. A surface trough will develop over central OR during the
   afternoon, providing weak convergence and supporting scattered
   thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show minimal instability, but
   steep boundary-layer lapse rates may yield sporadic strong gusts,
   possibly extending into NV as well where midlevel moisture will be
   increasing. 

   Elsewhere, localized strong wind gusts may occur with diurnal
   frontal activity from OK into parts of northwest TX. Temperatures
   will be hot, MUCAPE generally below 1000 J/kg, and winds aloft quite
   weak.

   ..Jewell.. 08/08/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z