Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 251730
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across the Northeast States on Friday.
A broad mid-level trough will shift eastward across southeast Canada
and into New England through daybreak Saturday. A mid-level
vorticity maximum is forecast to move through the base of the trough
and reach the St. Lawrence Valley by late afternoon. An associated
surface low will migrate eastward across New England during the day.
An attendant cold front will push eastward across New England.
A mix of sun/clouds during the morning is expected with isolated to
widely scattered showers/few thunderstorms expected closer to the
Canadian border. A relatively moist boundary layer will destabilize
through midday with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s deg F.
Moderate buoyancy coupled with some enhancement to mid-level flow
(30-40 kt at 500 mb) will contribute to the potential for storm
organization. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast by
the mid afternoon mainly in the form of multicellular clusters and
bands of storms. A few transient supercells are possible and some
risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado could develop with the
most intense storms. This activity will likely diminish during the
evening coincident with much of it pushing east of the coast and/or
storms encountering convectively overturned air.
...Northern High Plains/Western Dakotas...
A slow-moving upper low initially near the MT/Alberta border is
expected to evolve into an open wave as it moves into the western
Dakotas/southern Saskatchewan. A weak surface low will accompany
this shortwave trough, moving ahead of it across southeast MT and
A cluster of showers/storms will likely be ongoing across western SD
early Friday morning. The associated cloud cover will probably
temper diurnal heating and air mass destabilization over the Dakotas
except for the far western part of SD. Models indicate isolated
storms will develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of a moist
axis extending from near the Black Hills northwestward into eastern
MT. Isolated large hail/severe gusts are possible with the stronger
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