Aug 25, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 17:30:26 UTC 2022 (20220825 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220825 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220825 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 35,500 7,521,356 Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Hartford, CT...Manchester, NH...Waterbury, CT...
MARGINAL 131,913 30,997,849 New York, NY...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Rochester, NY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220825 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 35,190 7,401,576 Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Hartford, CT...Manchester, NH...Waterbury, CT...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220825 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 35,003 7,561,676 Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Hartford, CT...Manchester, NH...Waterbury, CT...
5 % 133,423 30,776,619 New York, NY...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Rochester, NY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220825 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 79,794 7,724,695 Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Hartford, CT...Manchester, NH...Waterbury, CT...
   SPC AC 251730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
   possible across the Northeast States on Friday.

   ...Northeast...
   A broad mid-level trough will shift eastward across southeast Canada
   and into New England through daybreak Saturday.  A mid-level
   vorticity maximum is forecast to move through the base of the trough
   and reach the St. Lawrence Valley by late afternoon.  An associated
   surface low will migrate eastward across New England during the day.
    An attendant cold front will push eastward across New England. 

   A mix of sun/clouds during the morning is expected with isolated to
   widely scattered showers/few thunderstorms expected closer to the
   Canadian border.  A relatively moist boundary layer will destabilize
   through midday with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s deg F. 
   Moderate buoyancy coupled with some enhancement to mid-level flow
   (30-40 kt at 500 mb) will contribute to the potential for storm
   organization.  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast by
   the mid afternoon mainly in the form of multicellular clusters and
   bands of storms.  A few transient supercells are possible and some
   risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado could develop with the
   most intense storms.  This activity will likely diminish during the
   evening coincident with much of it pushing east of the coast and/or
   storms encountering convectively overturned air.  

   ...Northern High Plains/Western Dakotas...
   A slow-moving upper low initially near the MT/Alberta border is
   expected to evolve into an open wave as it moves into the western
   Dakotas/southern Saskatchewan.  A weak surface low will accompany
   this shortwave trough, moving ahead of it across southeast MT and
   into ND. 

   A cluster of showers/storms will likely be ongoing across western SD
   early Friday morning.  The associated cloud cover will probably
   temper diurnal heating and air mass destabilization over the Dakotas
   except for the far western part of SD.  Models indicate isolated
   storms will develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of a moist
   axis extending from near the Black Hills northwestward into eastern
   MT.  Isolated large hail/severe gusts are possible with the stronger
   storms.

   ..Smith.. 08/25/2022

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