SPC AC 101706
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley,
Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Florida Big Bend to southeast
Virginia region Sunday morning into early Monday morning. Severe
thunderstorm potential is low.
...Mid-MS/OH Valley Vicinity...
An upper low is expected to develop Sunday as an early morning
shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley spreads eastward across
the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. This will result in modest
vertical shear across the region as mid/upper flow increases. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be in place ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front across parts of IL/IN/OH/KY.
Widespread cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit
heating. Furthermore, low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
Together, this will limit stronger instability from developing, with
around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Some locally gusty winds may
accompany stronger storms within clusters or line segments, but
overall severe potential is expected to remain low.
...FL Big Bend to the Coastal Carolinas/Southeast VA...
A weakening shortwave trough over the Lower MS Valley will spread
eastward across the southeastern U.S. Vertical shear will remain
weak across the region, with some modest enhancement of mid/upper
southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, a very moist airmass will be in
place, with afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 70s to
upper 80s, supporting weak destabilization. Organized severe storms
are expected to remain limited by modest instability and poor lapse
rates, but locally strong gusts could occur, aided by water-loaded
downdrafts in thunderstorm clusters.
...Southern CA into AZ...
The remnants of TC Kay will continue to impact the region, with
increased low and midlevel moisture persisting across southern CA
into AZ/NM. This will support isolated thunderstorm development,
especially near higher terrain. The greatest thunderstorm coverage
will likely be across parts of the higher terrain of AZ into
west-central NM. A few locally strong gusts could accompany this
activity if storms can persist as they move off the higher terrain
into the lower deserts where steep low level lapse rates are
expected. Even so, warm temperatures aloft and modest vertical shear
will limit overall severe potential.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z