SPC AC 101706

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few stronger thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley,
   Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Florida Big Bend to southeast
   Virginia region Sunday morning into early Monday morning. Severe
   thunderstorm potential is low.

   ...Mid-MS/OH Valley Vicinity...

   An upper low is expected to develop Sunday as an early morning
   shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley spreads eastward across
   the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. This will result in modest
   vertical shear across the region as mid/upper flow increases. At the
   surface, a moist airmass will be in place ahead of an
   eastward-advancing cold front across parts of IL/IN/OH/KY.
   Widespread cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit
   heating. Furthermore, low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
   Together, this will limit stronger instability from developing, with
   around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Some locally gusty winds may
   accompany stronger storms within clusters or line segments, but
   overall severe potential is expected to remain low. 

   ...FL Big Bend to the Coastal Carolinas/Southeast VA...

   A weakening shortwave trough over the Lower MS Valley will spread
   eastward across the southeastern U.S. Vertical shear will remain
   weak across the region, with some modest enhancement of mid/upper
   southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, a very moist airmass will be in
   place, with afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 70s to
   upper 80s, supporting weak destabilization. Organized severe storms
   are expected to remain limited by modest instability and poor lapse
   rates, but locally strong gusts could occur, aided by water-loaded
   downdrafts in thunderstorm clusters.

   ...Southern CA into AZ...

   The remnants of TC Kay will continue to impact the region, with
   increased low and midlevel moisture persisting across southern CA
   into AZ/NM. This will support isolated thunderstorm development,
   especially near higher terrain.  The greatest thunderstorm coverage
   will likely be across parts of the higher terrain of AZ into
   west-central NM. A few locally strong gusts could accompany this
   activity if storms can persist as they move off the higher terrain
   into the lower deserts where steep low level lapse rates are
   expected. Even so, warm temperatures aloft and modest vertical shear
   will limit overall severe potential.

   ..Leitman.. 09/10/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z