Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 260555
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA...
A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday
into Tuesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian.
The deep mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast
to gradually weaken and shift eastward on Tuesday. Farther west, a
vigorous mid/upper-level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest,
while a weak upper ridge persists over portions of the Southwest and
southern Plains. With dry and stable conditions covering most of the
CONUS, the primary concern will be the potential impact of Tropical
Cyclone Ian across Florida.
Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on
D1/Monday as it moves toward western Cuba, and then move into the
southeast Gulf of Mexico on D2/Tuesday. See NHC advisories and
forecasts for more information regarding Ian. Rich tropical moisture
will remain in place through the period across the Keys and most of
the peninsula, south of a cold front that will become nearly
stationary across north FL. Strengthening low-level flow/shear will
support a gradually increasing threat of rotating cells within any
rain bands associated with Ian. Some tornado threat may be ongoing
at the start of the period across the lower FL Keys, with this
threat spreading northward with time, and potentially peaking late
in the period as favorable low-level shear/SRH overspreads a larger
portion of the peninsula.
Uncertainties remain regarding Ian's track and intensity, and the
magnitude of destabilization, but at this time the greatest threat
for a few tornadoes appears to be over the FL Keys and southwest FL
Peninsula, in closer proximity to the forecast track of Ian through
12Z Wednesday. A 5% tornado area has been included for these areas,
though some adjustments will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks
as Ian's forecast track and intensity are refined, and important
mesoscale details come into better focus.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z