Sep 26, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 26 17:30:38 UTC 2022 (20220926 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220926 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220926 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 17,718 3,151,081 Cape Coral, FL...Brandon, FL...Bradenton, FL...Sarasota, FL...Fort Myers, FL...
MARGINAL 16,871 10,977,855 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220926 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 17,547 3,048,492 Cape Coral, FL...Brandon, FL...Bradenton, FL...Sarasota, FL...Fort Myers, FL...
2 % 17,061 11,099,311 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220926 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 25,954 10,093,818 Miami, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220926 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 261730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday
   into Tuesday night, in association with Hurricane Ian.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale upper troughing will continue over eastern NOAM Tuesday,
   while a second low/trough over the northeastern Pacific gradually
   approaches the Pacific Northwest.  In between, expansive ridging
   will extend from Texas and the Desert Southwest northward across the
   Rockies and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces.

   At the surface, a cold front will remain roughly in place from the
   southeastern U.S. Atlantic Coast, west-southwestward along the Gulf
   Coast vicinity.  To the south, Hurricane Ian is progged to be
   shifting slowly northward into/across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
   through the period.  Please refer to the latest forecasts regarding
   Ian from the National Hurricane Center.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   As Ian moves slowly northward, the low-level flow across the Florida
   Peninsula south of the aforementioned cold front -- particularly
   across west-central and southwestern Florida -- will increase with
   time.  Widespread convection surrounding Ian will overspread the
   area from south to north, with embedded cellular convection within
   bands surrounding the center of circulation.  

   As the inland wind field gradually strengthens, potential for
   rotating cells will likewise increase, along with associated tornado
   potential.  This risk may increase through the afternoon, and
   continue into the overnight hours as the storm gradually shifts
   northward.

   ..Goss.. 09/26/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z