Jan 7, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 7 07:21:39 UTC 2022 (20220107 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220107 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220107 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 49,669 3,754,089 Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...Lake Charles, LA...Monroe, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20220107 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 49,253 3,686,760 Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...Lake Charles, LA...Monroe, LA...
   SPC AC 070721

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND THE
   SABINE RIVER EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms will be possible on Sunday centered over
   Louisiana and Mississippi.

   ...Discussion...
   Strong cyclonic flow aloft will expand across the northern Plains,
   Great Lakes and into the Northeast with a southern branch of
   moderate westerlies across the Southeast. At the surface, a cold
   front will quickly shift south across the TN and lower MS Valleys,
   with western parts of the front clearing the TX Coast by afternoon.
   Heating is expected to be minimal ahead of the front, but mid to
   upper 60s F dewpoints will result in sufficient instability for a
   few strong storms during the day. MLCAPE may reach around 1000 J/kg,
   beneath 30-40 kt 500 mb winds. West/southwesterly 850 mb winds also
   around 30-40 kt will aid low-level shear, producing modest SRH
   values. Storms are likely to be ongoing along the front early in the
   day, and continue through the period across parts of LA, MS, and
   into AL. A few storms may become strong enough to produce isolated,
   marginally severe wind given deep-layer shear vector orientation
   relative to the cold front. However, the cold air is likely to
   undercut convection with time, rendering the storms elevated by
   evening.

   ..Jewell.. 01/07/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z