SPC AC 120619

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1219 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the Lower 48 on Friday,
   although a few showers may approach the Texas Coast by Saturday
   morning.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong, positive-tilt upper trough will move from the Rockies
   toward the Plains on Friday, with a 80+ kt midlevel speed max moving
   into northern TX by 12Z Saturday. Well to the east of this trough,
   another wave near the East Coast will quickly depart, with a dry,
   stable air mass remaining over the eastern states and across the
   northern Gulf of Mexico.

   Low pressure is forecast to consolidate into northern TX by 00Z
   Saturday, with a cold front surging southward across the central
   High Plains and into west TX. As the cool, dry air spreads south
   Friday night across the remainder of TX, the weak surface low will
   move toward the ArkLaTex. Low-level moisture return will occur along
   the TX Coastal Plain Friday night, with 50s dewpoints common over
   land. An exception may be a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints
   extending from the western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle TX
   Coast. Given that the cold front will interact with this air mass
   early in the return cycle, boundary-layer moisture quality is
   expected to be meager, and only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is
   expected to approach the TX Coast. Most models indicate that any
   convection will remain offshore through 12Z Saturday, thus
   thunderstorms are not forecast across the CONUS through the period.

   ..Jewell.. 01/12/2022

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