SPC AC 130550

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may affects parts of the
   Florida Panhandle late Saturday night.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough over the Plains will move southeastward across MO,
   OK and TX on Saturday, with a midlevel jet streak of 100 kt
   developing into the Sabine Valley by 00Z Sunday. The jet streak and
   associated midlevel temperature gradient will extend roughly from
   northern AL into southern MS and LA by 12Z Sunday as a cold front
   surges well to the east.

   Models have been fairly consistent showing minimal SBCAPE with this
   system, as dewpoints only rise into the 50s inland and lower 60s F
   near the Gulf Coast. Mid 60s F dewpoints, and therefore MUCAPE of
   200-500 J/kg, may eventually affect areas such as the coastal FL
   Panhandle after 06Z Sunday morning. Forecast soundings show
   deep-layer shear exceeding 50 kt, with modest effective SRH around
   200 m2/s2. This may support a localized wind or brief tornado threat
   centered over the coastal counties in the FL Panhandle, as storms
   over the northern Gulf waters approach shore.

   It should be noted that model differences exist with the speed of
   this system, and it is conceivable that thunderstorms over the
   eastern Gulf of Mexico could affect the western FL Peninsula toward
   the end of the period.

   ..Jewell.. 01/13/2022

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