Jan 15, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 15 07:00:35 UTC 2022 (20220115 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220115 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220115 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220115 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150700

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
   on Monday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   By 12Z Monday morning, a large-scale upper trough should encompass
   much of the eastern CONUS. An embedded closed upper low is forecast
   to be located over the Mid-Atlantic region. This feature should move
   generally northward across the Northeast through the day, while the
   large-scale upper trough gradually shifts eastward over the East
   Coast and across the western Atlantic through the period. A surface
   cold front should be located well east of the Atlantic Coast at the
   start of the period, with offshore trajectories likely being
   maintained over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic behind the
   front. While strong low-level warm advection will occur ahead of the
   upper cyclone over portions of New England Monday morning,
   instability is forecast to remain negligible. Accordingly,
   thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Monday.

   ..Gleason.. 01/15/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z