SPC AC 180822

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A line of showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the
   start of the period Thursday morning across parts of the lower MS
   Valley into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. There is
   still some uncertainty with the placement of the front and
   precipitation over this region in various model guidance.
   Regardless, the low-level moisture ahead of the front is forecast to
   be rather limited, with minimal instability present. While isolated
   thunderstorms may continue through the morning as the front moves
   offshore, severe convection appears unlikely owing to the lack of
   stronger instability (MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg).

   Otherwise, low-level moisture should gradually return northward
   through the period across parts of south/central FL ahead of a
   positively tilted upper-trough encompassing much of the
   central/eastern CONUS. Isolated convection appears possible mainly
   late Thursday night across portions of coastal south FL and the Keys
   as this process occurs.

   ..Gleason.. 01/18/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z