SPC AC 190908

   Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
   parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   A positively tilted, large-scale upper trough should continue
   advancing slowly eastward from the MS/OH Valleys to the East Coast
   through Friday night. Substantial low-level moisture, characterized
   by at least mid 60s surface dewpoints, will remain confined to the
   south of a warm front which is forecast to be positioned over parts
   of south FL Friday morning.

   Some differences remain in model guidance regarding how far north
   this rich low-level moisture will advance in tandem with the warm
   front across the southern/central FL Peninsula through the period.
   Regardless of this uncertainty, mid-level southwesterly flow is
   forecast to gradually strengthen by late Friday afternoon with the
   approach of the upper trough. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough
   to support supercells, especially across central FL, with gradually
   decreasing shear across south FL suggesting perhaps more of a
   multicellular mode with southward extent.

   With some diurnal heating occurring to the south of the front, at
   least weak instability should develop by peak afternoon heating. The
   forecast combination of sufficient instability and seasonably strong
   deep-layer shear indicates potential for isolated strong to severe
   thunderstorms with any convection that can develop along/south of
   the front. Large-scale ascent will be somewhat lacking with the best
   forcing associated with the upper trough likely remaining displaced
   to the north of the front. Still, weak low-level convergence along
   the front itself and along sea breeze boundaries may support
   isolated convection through Friday evening.

   Even though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain relatively
   modest, temperatures at 500 mb of -10 to -12 C across this region
   may support marginally severe hail in addition to an isolated threat
   for damaging winds. Fairly weak low-level flow casts greater
   uncertainty on the tornado threat. But, low potential for a rotating
   updraft or two may exist along the front itself, where low-level
   winds may be locally backed to a more southeasterly component.

   ..Gleason.. 01/19/2022

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