SPC AC 200812
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, but severe thunderstorms currently appear
unlikely.
...South Florida and the Keys...
An upper trough should move quickly off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
Saturday morning. A separate southern-stream shortwave trough is
forecast to advance eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico,
central Gulf Coast, and across north FL through the day, while
eventually moving over the western Atlantic by Saturday evening. At
the surface, a front will likely be located over parts of the
southern/central FL Peninsula Saturday morning.
This front should not make much, if any, northward progress across
the FL Peninsula on Saturday, as the surface reflection associated
with the southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to remain very
weak. In fact, most guidance suggests offshore trajectories will be
maintained both along and ahead of the front across south FL through
the day, which should limit low-level convergence and overall
thunderstorm coverage.
There should still be mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints in place
over most of south FL and the Keys ahead of the front. A strong
thunderstorm or two could develop along/near the Atlantic Coast or
Florida Straits Saturday afternoon as the front and greater
low-level moisture are shunted slowly southward. Deep-layer shear
appears strong enough for organized convection, but instability is
forecast to remain quite weak owing to poor mid-level lapse rates
and the gradually decreasing low-level moisture. At this time, the
threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears too uncertain and
conditional to include any severe probabilities across south FL
and/or the Keys.
..Gleason.. 01/20/2022
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