SPC AC 230746

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
   southern Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A low amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to be
   located over the Lower MS Valley early Tuesday morning before then
   moving east-northeastward throughout the day. An attendant surface
   low will begin the period displaced slightly to the south of its
   parent shortwave. This surface low is expected to become
   increasingly displaced from its parent shortwave trough throughout
   the day, likely ending the period near the Keys/southwest FL.

   Moisture return across the FL Peninsula ahead of this low will be
   limited throughout much of the day Tuesday, until the stronger
   low-level southerly flow begins Tuesday evening. Consequently, only
   modest low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the approaching
   surface low. Additionally, mid-level temperatures will remain warm
   and the overnight timing of the low is unfavorable for surface-based
   instability. All of these factors suggest thunderstorm coverage will
   be rather limited across the region, with the severe thunderstorm
   threat also tempered by the meager buoyancy.

   Elsewhere, stable conditions are expected across the majority of the
   central and eastern CONUS under an expansive surface ridge. Dry
   conditions are anticipated across the western CONUS as well, as a
   shortwave trough moves southeastward across the Intermountain West
   and upper ridging begins building along the West Coast in its wake.

   ..Mosier.. 01/23/2022

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