Jan 25, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 25 08:03:10 UTC 2022 (20220125 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220125 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220125 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220125 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250803

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the east-central and
   southeast Florida Coast Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified upper ridge is expected to be in place over the West
   Coast early Thursday, with broadly cyclonic flow downstream across
   much of the central and eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs are
   forecast to move within this cyclonic flow, including a shortwave
   expected to progress through the Southeast states and another
   expected to progress from the central Rockies southeastward through
   the southern High Plains into the southern Plains. The progression
   of these shortwaves will reinforce the central and eastern CONUS
   upper trough while the western CONUS upper ridge slides eastward and
   builds. As a result, by early Friday an amplified western CONUS
   ridge/eastern CONUS trough upper pattern will likely be in place.

   Dry and stable conditions will dominate the sensible weather across
   the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across central and
   southern FL, where modest low-level moisture will likely remain in
   place throughout the period. Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow
   may help foster a few thunderstorms along the east-central/southeast
   FL Coast.

   ..Mosier.. 01/25/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z