SPC AC 260807

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An amplified upper pattern is expected to cover the CONUS early
   Friday morning, with a strong upper ridge centered over the Great
   Basin and a deep upper trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes
   back into northwest Mexico. Some dampening of the upper riding is
   anticipated throughout the day as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   moves through its northern periphery and a deep shortwave trough
   approaches the West Coast. Farther east, a strong shortwave trough
   embedded within the larger upper troughing forecast to progress
   eastward while deepening/maturing. By early Saturday this shortwave
   will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic, with strong mid-level flow
   extending throughout its base from the Southeast off the Southeast
   coast.

   Strong forcing for ascent will accompany this shortwave trough as it
   moves across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast/FL.
   However, predominantly offshore low-level trajectories will prevent
   moisture return ahead of this shortwave, precluding the buoyancy
   needed for thunderstorm development. 

   Some modest low-level moisture may be in place across central and
   southern FL, and isolated thunderstorms may occur across
   east-central/southeast FL coast as a surface low develops offshore.
   However, uncertainty regarding frontal timing and very limited
   buoyancy are expected to keep thunderstorm coverage less than 10
   percent. A flash or two is also possible within the warm air
   advection across the coastal NC/Outer Banks, but coverage here is
   also expected to be less than 10 percent.

   ..Mosier.. 01/26/2022

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