Jan 27, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 27 06:55:46 UTC 2022 (20220127 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220127 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220127 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220127 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270655

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong shortwave trough is forecast to centered over the
   Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas early Saturday before then
   continuing northeastward while maturing into a closed mid-latitude
   cyclone. High pressure in the wake of this strong shortwave should
   result in offshore low-level trajectories across the eastern CONUS,
   precluding moisture return and related buoyancy.

   Farther west, an upper ridge initially centered over the Four
   Corners is expected to weaken throughout the day while gradually
   shifting eastward in response to a upper low moving into southern
   CA. By early Sunday, this upper low will likely be centered over the
   Lower CO River Valley with upper ridging shifted eastward to the
   southern High Plains. Some southerly low-level flow is anticipated
   ahead of the upper ridge across the southern Plains. However, any
   low-level moisture or buoyancy will be displaced well south from
   previous frontal intrusions, keeping the region dry and stable.

   ..Mosier.. 01/27/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z