Jan 28, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 28 07:45:04 UTC 2022 (20220128 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220128 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220128 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220128 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280745

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper low and attendant trough over the lower CO Valley Sunday
   morning will shift east across the southern Rockies, emerging over
   TX/the southern Plains by Monday morning. In response, a surface
   trough will develop over the central/southern High Plains and
   southerly low-level flow will modestly increase. Prior cold frontal
   intrusions, deep into the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean vicinity, will
   limit boundary-layer moisture return. 50s to near 60 F surface
   dewpoints will mainly be confined to the lower/middle TX coast late
   in the forecast period. As such, thunderstorms are not expected at
   this time. 

   Elsewhere, several upper shortwave troughs will migrate through
   larger-scale northwesterly flow from the northern Rockies toward the
   Atlantic coast. Dry and stable conditions with surface high pressure
   centered over the Midwest will preclude thunderstorm activity.

   ..Leitman.. 01/28/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z