SPC AC 290655

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CST Sat Jan 29 2022

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A strong storm or two will be possible near the Lower or Middle
   Texas Coast Monday morning into early afternoon. However, overall
   severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

   ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast Vicinity...

   A mid/upper level low and attendant trough will be positioned over
   western/central TX Monday morning. This system should move over the
   western Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening and into the overnight
   hours. At the surface, a weak low and cold front will shift east
   from the Edwards Plateau to the Lower/Middle TX Coast by late
   afternoon. Ahead of the low, southerly low-level flow will allow
   surface dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s F. Midlevel
   lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km are indicated in forecast soundings,
   aiding in mainly elevated instability of 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE.
   Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat modest, but backed low-level
   winds in the vicinity of the coast will allow for effective shear
   magnitudes around 20-30 kt. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
   likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period. Given the
   timing of the upper trough and surface cold front, a couple strong
   thunderstorms may be possible during the morning/early afternoon.
   Small hail and gusty winds may accompany the strongest cells.
   However, modest shear and weak instability will limit overall severe
   potential and severe probabilities will not be introduced at this
   time.

   ..Leitman.. 01/29/2022

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