SPC AC 310804

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...

   A large-scale mid/upper trough extending from the northern Rockies
   to northwest Mexico will pivot eastward on Wednesday, becoming
   oriented from the northern Plains to the southern Rockies/northern
   Mexico by Thursday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow
   will extend from TX to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile,
   south/southeast low-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico will allow
   60s F surface dewpoints to spread across the TX Gulf Coast into the
   Lower MS Valley ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing arctic cold
   front. A lack of stronger height falls/cooling aloft will lead to
   poor midlevel lapse rates, though increasing boundary-layer moisture
   will help support weak destabilization. Large-scale forcing for
   ascent also will remain weak across the region as the upper trough
   stays well to the west of the TX coast/Lower MS Valley. Isolated
   thunderstorms will be possible, though severe convection is not
   anticipated, and heavy rain will likely be the main hazard.

   ..Leitman.. 01/31/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z