SPC AC 020823

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes/Midwest to
   the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Further south, the upper
   trough over the southern Rockies/High Plains will develop a closed
   low as it tracks east to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, a
   strong cold front will extend from near the Chesapeake Bay vicinity
   to the western FL Panhandle and central Gulf of Mexico Friday
   morning. Dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s F will be in place ahead
   of the front across FL into the NC/SC Piedmont and coastal plain.
   Despite adequate low-level moisture, weak diurnal heating and poor
   midlevel lapse rates will limit destabilization across the
   Southeast/eastern Carolinas. Furthermore, the lack of a stronger
   surface low will result in veered low-level winds ahead of the
   front, leading to poor frontal convergence. Deep-layer flow parallel
   to the eastward-advancing surface front also will favor an
   anafrontal scenario. While isolated thunderstorms are possible
   across parts of the Southeast, severe convection is not anticipated.

   ..Leitman.. 02/02/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z