SPC AC 040601

   Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday
   through Sunday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Broad, large-scale mid-level ridging is forecast to persist across
   much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America,
   with short wave perturbations continuing to emerge from a strong
   upstream jet, before progressing around its northern periphery.  One
   significant impulse may further suppress the southern mid-latitude
   eastern Pacific blocking ridging, while accelerating across the
   northeastern Pacific toward the British Columbia coast through this
   period.  This may be accompanied by a plume of weak to modest
   moisture return shifting into U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal areas,
   but it appears that mid-level cooling will not be sufficient to
   support appreciable destabilization and a risk for thunderstorm
   activity.

   Downstream of the ridging, models suggest that there may be some
   consolidation and phasing of mid-level troughing, along a positively
   tilted axis from the upper Great Lakes into the northern Mexican
   Plateau.  It appears that this will include the remnants of a
   mid-level low accelerating east of the Baja California Sur, toward
   the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by significant
   strengthening of mid/upper flow across northwestern Gulf coast areas
   through the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night.  Weak
   surface frontal wave development appears possible near northeastern
   Mexico Gulf coastal areas, with some elevated moisture return as far
   north as the lower Rio Grande Valley.  However, mid-level lapse
   rates are not forecast to steepen substantively, and destabilization
   may not become sufficient to support an appreciable risk for
   thunderstorms.

   To the east of the mid-level troughing, an initially stalled surface
   frontal zone may redevelop northward, inland across parts of the
   southern through central Florida Peninsula, with a weak wave
   developing east of the northern Florida Atlantic coast by late
   Sunday night.  This may be accompanied by modest boundary-layer
   moistening inland of southeastern Florida coastal areas during the
   day Sunday, but it remains unclear if destabilization will become
   sufficient to support a risk for thunderstorms, beneath building
   mid-level ridging.

   ..Kerr.. 02/04/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z