SPC AC 050513

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 PM CST Fri Feb 04 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Monday through Monday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected through this
   period.  In the wake of one inland progressing short wave trough
   across the Canadian Rockies, blocking mid-level ridging may again
   begin to become more prominent offshore of the Pacific coast.  As
   short wave ridging builds to its north, near/west of the Canadian
   Rockies, the downstream trough is forecast to dig across the
   Canadian Prairies and adjacent international border area.  

   Farther downstream, models indicate that consolidating short wave
   troughing will dig across the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, into the
   southern Appalachians by late Monday night.  As large-scale forcing
   for ascent begins to increase ahead of this feature, it appears that
   modest surface cyclogenesis may proceed near the Gulf Stream, off
   the southern Mid Atlantic coast.  This probably will be accompanied
   by an increase in thunderstorm development over the  open waters of
   the southwestern Atlantic, as the boundary layer across this
   vicinity continues to modify.

   Weak, elevated conditional and convective instability (based around
   700 mb) may linger across parts of Deep South Texas into Monday,
   ahead of a lingering mid-level trough axis in a separate stream,
   across the northern Mexican Plateau into parts of the southern Great
   Plains.  Based on the spread in the various model output, the
   evolution of the mid-level perturbation remains somewhat uncertain,
   and it is not yet clear that an appreciable risk for weak
   thunderstorm activity will develop.

   ..Kerr.. 02/05/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z