Feb 7, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 7 05:05:15 UTC 2022 (20220207 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220207 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220207 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220207 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 070505

   Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 PM CST Sun Feb 06 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Wednesday through Wednesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   A compact, but deep, mid-level low over the northeastern Canadian
   Arctic latitudes may begin to redevelop southward toward
   northeastern portions of Hudson Bay during this period, while
   another short wave impulse emerging from the Arctic latitudes
   amplifies to its south.  Otherwise, models indicate little change to
   the large-scale flow across the Pacific through North America, as a
   prominent blocking regime persists near and offshore of the Pacific
   coast.

   Splitting branches downstream of this regime (comprising broad, mean
   large-scale troughing into the western Atlantic) include one
   lingering belt across northern Mexico, through much of the southern
   Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean, where there may be
   substantive further drying within the lower/mid troposphere
   Wednesday through Wednesday night.

   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z