SPC AC 080515

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 PM CST Mon Feb 07 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Thursday through Thursday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern from
   Wednesday into Thursday, with a blocking mid-level high remaining
   prominent offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast.  It does appear that
   short wave ridging may build once again near the British Columbia
   coast, in the wake of one inland progressing short wave impulse
   (around the northern periphery of larger-scale mid-level ridging
   across the eastern Pacific into western North America), and ahead of
   another emanating from a strong upstream southern mid-latitude
   Pacific jet.

   The lead impulse is forecast to be accompanied by significant
   surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, across
   northern Alberta into north central Saskatchewan by 12Z Thursday,
   and it appears the center of the fairly broad and deep low will
   migrate into the Upper Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. 
   However, with cool surface ridging being maintained beneath
   confluent, cyclonic mid-level westerlies across the Mexican Plateau
   through Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region, moisture content
   within the warm sector of the cyclone will remain rather low.  This
   is expected to preclude appreciable potential for destabilization
   and associated risk for thunderstorm activity.

   ..Kerr.. 02/08/2022

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