SPC AC 090530

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CST Tue Feb 08 2022

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from a small portion of Deep South Texas, the risk for
   thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday
   through Friday  night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Although another inland progressing short wave perturbation may
   suppress mid-level heights across northern British Columbia, and the
   persistent high may gradually weaken near the California coast,
   mid/upper ridging appears likely to remain prominent along much of
   the North American Pacific Coast through this period.  Downstream,
   models indicate that there may be substantive further amplification
   of mid-level troughing along a positively-tilted axis, across the
   Great Lakes into the southern U.S. Great Plains.  This trails
   southwestward from a deep mid-level low forecast to accelerate
   east-northeastward out of northern Quebec, while mid-level ridging
   builds further across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical
   western Atlantic.  

   While a surface frontal zone probably will linger southeast of the
   Florida Peninsula and Keys into parts of the southeastern Gulf of
   Mexico and northwestern Caribbean, latest model output indicates
   that moistening with boundary-layer modification over an expanding
   area of the southern/southwestern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to
   weak destabilization Friday through Friday night.  At the same time,
   a reinforcing intrusion of seasonably cold air appears likely to
   advance as far south as the lower Ohio/middle Mississippi Valleys
   and southern Great Plains by 12Z Saturday.

   ...Deep South Texas/lower Rio Grande Valley...
   Models suggest that low-level moisture return from the southwestern
   Gulf of Mexico, coupled with steepening lapse rates associated with
   mid-level cooling, may contribute to weak destabilization as far
   north as the Brownsville area by late Friday night.  This might be
   based above a lingering stable boundary-layer, but lift supported by
   mid/upper forcing downstream of the amplifying mid-level troughing,
   and perhaps a perturbation emerging from the separate weaker
   southern branch troughing, may be sufficient to support weak
   thunderstorm development.

   ..Kerr.. 02/09/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z