SPC AC 100545

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CST Wed Feb 09 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from parts of southern Florida, and perhaps parts of Deep
   South Texas, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across
   much of the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate that a short wave impulse, progressing through a
   strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude western Pacific,
   will undergo considerable amplification through this period. 
   Subsequent downstream amplification is forecast to include building
   short wave ridging to the south of the Aleutians, and deepening
   mid-level troughing turning eastward across the northeastern
   Pacific, around the northern periphery of persistent large-scale
   mid-level ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North
   America.

   This may contribute to substantive further weakening of the remnants
   of the blocking mid-level high near the California coast, but the
   larger-scale mid-level ridging will remain amplified inland of the
   Pacific coast into the Rockies.  As a vigorous short wave impulse
   continues digging to the east of this ridging, southeastward from
   the Canadian Prairies, larger-scale downstream mid-level troughing
   may begin to consolidate and reach peak amplitude while approaching
   the Atlantic Seaboard Saturday through Saturday night.

   In association with these latter developments, perhaps most
   prominently, a reinforcing intrusion of seasonably cold air appears
   likely to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains
   and much of the northern/western Gulf Basin by 12Z Sunday.  Forcing
   for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing may provide support
   for surface frontal wave development offshore of the southern/mid
   Atlantic coast, but this appears likely to remain rather modest to
   weak through this period.  Preceding the cold intrusion, there
   remains a signal that boundary-layer modification and
   destabilization across the south central and southeastern Gulf of
   Mexico, coupled with large-scale ascent, may contribute to an area
   of developing thunderstorm activity.  It appears that this will
   spread toward central and southern Florida, but may weaken while
   approaching coastal areas by late Saturday night.  Regardless, with
   low-level wind fields remaining rather weak, the risk for severe
   weather currently appears negligible.

   ..Kerr.. 02/10/2022

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