SPC AC 130756

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Overall upper pattern is expected to amplify significantly during
   the period. This amplification will be promoted by the southeastward
   progression of a strong shortwave trough across the Great Basin into
   the Southwest/Four Corner. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this
   shortwave, spreading into the Southwest and southern High Plains
   Tuesday evening and across much of the southern Plains by Wednesday
   morning. Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -30 deg C at 500 mb) will
   also accompany this shortwave, and there is low potential for a few
   lightning flashes within any cells that develop near this colder air
   aloft. Coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10
   percent.

   Strong low-level southerly flow is anticipated across the Plains
   throughout the entire period ahead of this shortwave. By Wednesday
   morning, mid 50s dewpoints are expected into north TX, with low 60s
   dewpoints possible along the TX Coast. Even so, the stronger forcing
   for ascent will remain west of the southern Plains and capping
   promoted by warm mid-level temperatures will preclude thunderstorm
   development.

   ..Mosier.. 02/13/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z