SPC AC 160812

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Atlantic States southward
   into Florida on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
   expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper trough is forecast to extend across the CONUS early
   Friday. A belt of strong mid to upper level flow is expected to
   extend from the southern Plains across much of the eastern CONUS. An
   embedded shortwave trough and associated surface low will begin the
   period over ME, with a cold front extending from the surface low
   southwestward to the FL Panhandle. Thunderstorms are possible along
   and ahead of this front, from the Mid-Atlantic southward into FL, as
   it moves eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Much of that
   region will be displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting
   the severe potential. The only exception is across the Mid-Atlantic
   Friday morning.  

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   Instability over the region ahead of the front will be tempered by
   warm mid-level temperatures, but low to mid-level flow will strong.
   This stronger flow could result in damaging wind gusts within any
   more persistent and deep updrafts. However, confidence in deep
   enough updrafts is currently low and variability of frontal timing
   within the guidance is high. These uncertainties preclude
   introducing any severe probabilities over the region with this
   outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 02/16/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z