Feb 17, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 17 07:16:41 UTC 2022 (20220217 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220217 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220217 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220217 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170716

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A northern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great
   Lakes is forecast to progress quickly eastward through the Northeast
   and northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A low-amplitude shortwave
   trough is expected to move through the northern-stream over the
   Canadian Prairie Provinces/northern Plains and an upper low is
   forecast to move southward off the West Coast, but largely zonal
   flow is anticipated across much of the CONUS. 

   A cold front associated with the lead northern-stream shortwave will
   push southeastward through the OH Valley, Northeast, and
   Mid-Atlantic, helping to reinforce the dry and stable air mass in
   place over those regions. Low-level southerly flow is expected
   across the southern and central Plains, but moisture return will be
   limited given the previous frontal intrusion. As a result, dry and
   stable condition will prevail, and no thunderstorms are expected.

   ..Mosier.. 02/17/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z