Feb 18, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 18 08:28:27 UTC 2022 (20220218 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220218 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220218 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220218 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 180828

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday into Sunday night
   across parts of central and east Texas eastward into the central
   Gulf Coast states.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A west-southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Sunday
   across much of the continental United States. At the surface, an
   area of high pressure will move eastward away from the Eastern
   Seaboard as onshore flow in the western Gulf Coast states results in
   weak moisture return. Warm-advection-related thunderstorm
   development will be possible Sunday afternoon across parts of
   central and eastern Texas. This potential for thunderstorm
   development should spread east-northeastward across the lower
   Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states Sunday
   night as a low-level jet develops across the region. No severe
   thunderstorms are expected across the continental United States
   Sunday and Sunday night.

   ..Broyles.. 02/18/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z