Feb 28, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 28 08:14:21 UTC 2022 (20220228 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220228 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220228 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220228 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280814

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low will move east across Quebec, with broad area of
   cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and Northeast. An associated
   midlevel jet will strengthen through the period to over 100 kt from
   Lower MI to southern New England. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will
   move very little over the Rockies, but an upper trough will approach
   the West Coast late in the period.

   High pressure will remain situated across the southeastern states as
   well as over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this will prevent
   instability from developing with poor moisture trajectories.
   Elsewhere, little to no CAPE is forecast across the Pacific
   Northwest in advance of the next upper trough, thus thunderstorms
   are unlikely anywhere across the CONUS on Wednesday.

   ..Jewell.. 02/28/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z