Mar 1, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 1 07:29:14 UTC 2022 (20220301 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220301 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220301 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220301 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 AM CST Tue Mar 01 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   High pressure will maintain stable conditions across much of the
   eastern CONUS as a broad upper trough slowly moves across the Great
   Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, temporary upper ridging will occur
   over the Plains as a large upper trough deepens over the West.
   Strong cooling aloft beneath the upper trough will affect parts of
   central CA into NV late in the period, but forecast soundings
   indicate very little instability will be present to support
   thunderstorms through 12Z Friday. An isolated flash cannot be ruled
   out though as lift increases across CA and NV. Low-level winds
   across the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Plains will begin to
   increase out of the south as the western trough develops, but little
   to no CAPE will not favor thunderstorms this early in the moisture
   return cycle.

   ..Jewell.. 03/01/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z