SPC AC 020822

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CST Wed Mar 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night over parts
   of Utah and Colorado. Severe storms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   On Friday, upper troughing will take shape across the western
   states, with two primary waves. The first shortwave trough will move
   across the Southwest and into the central/southern High Plains by
   12Z Saturday, taking on a negative tilt with rapid cooling aloft
   across the Four Corners states. Meanwhile, a deeper closed low will
   drop south across OR and into northern CA.

   At the surface, pressures will lower from the Great Basin into the
   central Plains, with a high remaining over the Mid Atlantic.
   Southerly winds will increase as they veer across the Gulf of Mexico
   and into the southern Plains, with a plume of mid to upper 50s F
   dewpoints streaming north across TX and OK, possibly reaching
   southern KS by 12Z Saturday. Preceding the leading shortwave trough,
   a cold front will stretch roughly along the I-70 corridor from CO
   into MO.

   While the air mass will moisten across the Plains, thunderstorms are
   not expected due to capping. Farther west, steeper lapse rates
   across UT and CO and lift with the wave may result in isolated to
   scattered thunderstorms, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing
   with heating from UT into CO. Although deep-layer shear will be
   favorable for organizing storms between 40 and 60 kt depending on
   the model, the weak instability will likely preclude much severe
   risk. However, locally strong wind gusts will be possible.

   ..Jewell.. 03/02/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z