May 8, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun May 8 07:28:01 UTC 2022 (20220508 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220508 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220508 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 34,933 789,878 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...
MARGINAL 52,485 1,036,223 Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...San Angelo, TX...Del Rio, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20220508 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 35,059 776,988 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...
5 % 52,170 1,041,139 Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...San Angelo, TX...Del Rio, TX...
   SPC AC 080728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms may evolve across portions of western Texas late
   in the day Tuesday, accompanied by hail/wind risk.

   ...Synopsis...
   While an upper low lingers just off the East Coast, a persistent
   trough will remain over the West through the period.  In between,
   ridging will expand slightly westward across the Plains with time,
   thus broadening a bit to include much of the central states and
   Midwest.

   At the surface, a baroclinic zone bisecting the Plains will remain
   the primary feature of interest, extending from the Great Lakes to
   the Desert Southwest through the period.

   ...Parts of the western Texas vicinity...
   Capping at the base of an elevated mixed layer will persist across
   much of the central U.S. -- supported in most areas by large-scale
   subsidence associated with the expanding central U.S. upper ridge. 
   However, models continue to hint that a subtle vort max will shift
   northeastward out of northwestern Mexico toward the southern High
   Plains.  Weak ascent -- combined with diurnal heating/mixing -- may
   be sufficient locally to allow isolated storm development to occur
   over western portions of Texas late in the day.  With ample CAPE
   within the steep-lapse-rate layer above the cap, storms would
   quickly grow/intensify, aided by modestly increasing/veering flow
   with height.  As such, risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and
   large hail, would be possible with a couple of the most organized
   cells, before convection diminishes during the evening as the cap
   becomes re-established.

   ..Goss.. 05/08/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z