May 10, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue May 10 07:51:11 UTC 2022 (20220510 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220510 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220510 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 121,144 6,026,982 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...
SLIGHT 116,987 4,215,441 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
MARGINAL 245,511 8,783,070 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Overland Park, KS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20220510 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 67,795 2,010,036 Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...St. Cloud, MN...Grand Forks, ND...
30 % 121,431 6,149,980 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...
15 % 117,368 4,098,938 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
5 % 244,798 8,771,228 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Overland Park, KS...
   SPC AC 100751

   Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE COLOR

   ...SUMMARY...
   Well-organized severe storms are expected to evolve from the eastern
   Dakotas and Minnesota southward into the central Plains Thursday. 
   Very large hail and damaging winds are expected, along with
   potential for a couple of tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject out of the
   Rockies and across the central and northern Plains Thursday, taking
   on increasingly negative tilt as it does.  Meanwhile, a large
   upper-level cyclone will continue to drift westward, shifting into
   the southeastern states through the period.

   At the surface, a deepening low is progged to move northward across
   the Dakotas through the day, and then should rapidly occlude and
   shift northwestward overnight, eventually reaching southeastern
   Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba by the end of the period. 
   Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will cross the northern and central
   Plains through the afternoon and evening, to a position from the
   western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to western Texas by 13/12Z.

   ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward to the
   southern High Plains...
   Steep lapse rates aloft atop a moist/diurnally heating boundary
   layer will result in strong destabilization across the northern and
   central Plains, within the warm sector of the evolving surface
   system.  As a developing cold front advances eastward, strong ascent
   will help to weaken -- and eventually eliminate -- capping.  This
   will lead to afternoon storm development near the front, along with
   an expansion of elevated storm coverage north of the warm front over
   northern portions of the outlook area.

   Initial storms should intensify rapidly given the degree of CAPE
   expected, and aided by favorably strong flow through a deep layer
   that will overspread the area in conjunction with the advancing
   upper system.  Along with risk for very large hail, damaging winds
   an a couple of tornadoes can be expected during the afternoon with
   severe/supercell storms.  Greatest risk will likely evolve from
   southeastern North Dakota and adjacent west-central Minnesota
   southward into eastern Nebraska, and then spread eastward with time
   as upscale storm growth likely results in an at least
   semi-continuous line of severe storms.  While risk for large hail
   and a couple of tornadoes should continue well into the evening,
   potential for widespread damaging winds appears likely to increase
   with time presuming the anticipated/gradual evolution toward a more
   linear convective event.

   Farther south, across Kansas and western Oklahoma and into western
   Texas, storm coverage should be more limited, and severe risk
   somewhat more muted.  Still, local risk for large hail and strong
   winds will exist with a few of the stronger afternoon and evening
   storms.

   ..Goss.. 05/10/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z