Aug 2, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 2 07:11:57 UTC 2022 (20220802 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20220802 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220802 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20220802 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020711

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe storms are not expected on Thursday, but sporadic
   strong storms may produce gusty winds over portions of the interior
   West, and from the Missouri Valley into the Northeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper high will build over the central High Plains Thursday, with
   relatively weak flow aloft across most of the CONUS. The exception
   will be from the Pacific Northwest into the Dakotas, as the base of
   a shortwave trough moves across MT. Low pressure will be focused
   over SK during the day, with westerlies generally resulting in
   weakly unstable conditions until late overnight when the low-level
   jet increases over the eastern Dakotas. Here, a few elevated storms
   will be possible, but weak instability should preclude any severe
   risk.

   Elsewhere, a warm and moist air mass will exist from the lower MO
   valley into the Northeast, with various clusters of storms along and
   south of a stationary front. Given the generally weakening upper
   flow regime and rising heights, concentrated areas of severe storms
   are currently not anticipated.

   ..Jewell.. 08/02/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z