Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
18,746
1,757,883
Tallahassee, FL...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
24,543
1,999,318
Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 171612
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA....
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across
parts of the north-central/northeastern Gulf Coast region. Damaging
gusts will be the main concern, and a tornado is possible.
...Gulf Coast Region...
A strong surface cold front and associated line of showers and
thunderstorms is progressing eastward across southeast LA and
southern MS. Convective intensity has been modest this morning,
with relatively weak CAPE and cool surface temperatures being
limiting factors. Visible satellite imagery shows partial heating
occurring from Mobile Bay eastward, where temperatures will warm
into the mid/upper 70s. Destabilization and steepening low-level
lapse rates should result in some intensification and increasing
risk of robust storms by mid-afternoon over southern AL, the FL
panhandle, and southwest GA. Forecast soundings show relatively
veered low-level winds and moderately strong westerly flow aloft.
This may result in a few bowing structures capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
..Hart/Kerr.. 03/17/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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