Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 051943
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
TENNESSEE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
Severe thunderstorm winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are
expected today from the Great Lakes to parts of east Texas and
...Mid-MS River Valley to the Great Lakes region...
Broken convective line segments continue to migrate east/northeast
from western TN into the greater OH River Valley region. Damaging
winds continue to be noted with the stronger segments of the line
and/or embedded cells, and broken cloud cover ahead of the line
coupled with low 60s dewpoints continues to support MLCAPE values
near 1000 J/kg. Regional VWPs are also sampling 50+ flow within the
lowest 1-2 km, north of the OH River, which suggests that damaging
winds will remain possible with more organized segments.
...Lower MS River Valley...
Further south, an uptick in convective intensity is noted as the
broken line along/ahead of the cold front impinges on a more
unstable air mass (MLCAPE near 2000-2500 J/kg). The threat for
severe wind/hail, and perhaps a tornado, will continue through the
evening hours - see MCD #488 for additional details.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023/
...Great Lakes into Lower MS Valley today...
A long band of broken convection extends along/ahead of a cold front
from southern Lower MI into parts of IN/IL/MO/AR/TX. This line will
progress eastward today across much of the OH/TN Valleys. Ample low
level moisture and strong winds aloft will maintain a risk of bowing
structures and associated risk of damaging wind gusts across the
region. A few cells along or ahead of the line could also organize
into supercells, posing a risk of tornadoes. Considerable clouds,
lessening midlevel lapse rates, and shorter-term convective trends
are decreasing the confidence of a more widespread damaging wind
event, but there is sufficient concern of re-intensification this
afternoon to maintain the ENH risk and associated 30% severe wind
probabilities in some areas.
Several weak shortwave troughs are rotating through the base of the
upper trough, resulting in increasing large scale forcing for ascent
by evening over parts of east TX/LA. This will result in scattered
thunderstorms that spread eastward into northern MS, west TN, and
northwest AL. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong in
this area, and many of the storms will be on the north side of the
stalled front. Nevertheless, a few of the storms may pose a risk of
large hail and gusty winds.
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