Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Fort Worth, TX...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
SPC AC 231629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WEST TO
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across west to
central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. A few intense
storms are possible between 4 PM to Midnight. These will be capable
of producing very large hail to around baseballs, severe wind gusts
to around 80 mph, and brief tornadoes.
...Southern High Plains to central TX...
With widespread upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points established
and steeper mid-level lapse rates (around 1 C/km greater) sampled in
12Z MAF/AMA soundings compared to yesterday, larger MLCAPE from
2000-3000 J/kg is anticipated at peak heating ahead of the dryline
in west to central TX. This will aid in a broader swath of severe
thunderstorm potential during the late afternoon and evening
relative to yesterday.
A trio of minor MCVs are evident in water vapor/radar imagery...over
east TX, north-central OK, and northeast NM. The latter impulse in
conjunction with terrain enhancement and weak convergence along the
dryline should aid in scattered thunderstorms forming towards
mid-afternoon from northeast NM to the South Plains, with isolated
thunderstorms also over the Trans-Pecos. Despite weak SRH initially,
30-35 kt effective bulk shear with relatively straight-line
hodographs should foster outflow-dominated, splitting supercells
with a primary threat of very large hail. Morning CAM guidance is
varied in the duration of discrete supercell mode but the consensus
appears to indicate a quicker transition to upscale growth relative
to yesterday's event. The most likely area for MCS occurrence
appears to be across the Big Country vicinity, with severe wind gust
potential likely lingering longer tonight (wind reports yesterday
ending around 02Z) and farther southeast into central TX, owing to
the greater buoyancy today.
An MCV remains anchored over west-central AL with a low-amplitude
trough extending south into the northern Gulf. Ahead of this,
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northeast Gulf and will
also occur in a few hours along the sea breezes across the
peninsula. Weak mid-level lapse rates sampled in 12Z soundings will
continue to be a limiting factor to more substantial instability,
but 20-30 kt effective bulk shear should support multicell
clustering with a primary threat of sporadic downbursts producing
locally damaging winds.
...Northeast NV/northwest UT and southeast ID...
An upper trough with a series of embedded shortwave impulses will
remain anchored from the Canadian Rockies south into northern CA.
The fringe of enhanced mid-level south-southwesterlies should
overlap a weak buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE from 250-750
J/kg over the northern Great Basin this afternoon. Scattered
multicell clusters are expected in this corridor, with the potential
for isolated severe gusts and small hail.
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