Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Denver, CO...Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...Tampa, FL...Aurora, CO...
SPC AC 240521
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the central and
southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging gusts, along with a tornado or two will be possible.
Additional strong storms may bring hail and gusty winds to portions
of the Great Basin and northern High Plains, with strong gusts
possible across the Florida Peninsula.
Some uncertainty lingers regarding extent of severe potential into
parts of northwest Texas today. Overnight convection lingering into
this morning will lead to quite a bit of airmass
recovery/modification necessary to realize severe convection over
the TX South Plains to west-central TX vicinity. Forecast guidance
also indicates possible subsidence behind the ongoing MCS (as of
05z), and some midlevel warming building into the southern High
Plains, potentially limiting southeast extent of severe potential
and greater thunderstorm coverage. As a result, the initial Day 1
slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has not change too much from the previous
Day 2 outlook, with some adjustment westward based on guidance
trends. Adequate (upper 50s and low 60s F) boundary layer moisture
will reside north of an outflow boundary draped across western and
central TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg) amid 25-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes. Convection will initiate off higher terrain from
northeast NM into southeast CO and intensify as storms track
southeast through the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts will be
possible with this activity. Modest low-level moisture and generally
weak 0-3 km shear will limit tornado potential, though a brief
tornado or two can not be ruled out, especially with storm/outflow
...NV/UT into eastern MT...
The western upper trough will not move much today, with some modest
enhancement of mid/upper southwesterly flow spreading from the Great
Basin into eastern MT. Pockets of seasonally moist boundary-layer
dewpoints and stronger heating amid steep midlevel lapse rates will
aid in diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorm will develop
over terrain favored areas as well as ahead of an
eastward-progressing cold front across eastern MT. Marginal vertical
shear and sufficient instability will allow for isolated strong to
severe storms capable of hail and strong outflow winds.
The southern extent of the eastern U.S. upper trough will linger
over Florida today. Vertical shear will remain modest, but abundant
boundary-layer moisture and heating will allow for moderate
destabilization. Thunderstorm development will focus along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries and a few wet microbursts could
produce damaging gusts through early evening. Some of the more
robust updrafts may also be briefly capable of small hail.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z