SPC AC 240521

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE
   OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the central and
   southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
   damaging gusts, along with a tornado or two will be possible.
   Additional strong storms may bring hail and gusty winds to portions
   of the Great Basin and northern High Plains, with strong gusts
   possible across the Florida Peninsula.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...

   Some uncertainty lingers regarding extent of severe potential into
   parts of northwest Texas today. Overnight convection lingering into
   this morning will lead to quite a bit of airmass
   recovery/modification necessary to realize severe convection over
   the TX South Plains to west-central TX vicinity. Forecast guidance
   also indicates possible subsidence behind the ongoing MCS (as of
   05z), and some midlevel warming building into the southern High
   Plains, potentially limiting southeast extent of severe potential
   and greater thunderstorm coverage. As a result, the initial Day 1
   slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has not change too much from the previous
   Day 2 outlook, with some adjustment westward based on guidance
   trends. Adequate (upper 50s and low 60s F) boundary layer moisture
   will reside north of an outflow boundary draped across western and
   central TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in moderate
   destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg) amid 25-35 kt effective shear
   magnitudes. Convection will initiate off higher terrain from
   northeast NM into southeast CO and intensify as storms track
   southeast through the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts will be
   possible with this activity. Modest low-level moisture and generally
   weak 0-3 km shear will limit tornado potential, though a brief
   tornado or two can not be ruled out, especially with storm/outflow
   interactions.

   ...NV/UT into eastern MT...

   The western upper trough will not move much today, with some modest
   enhancement of mid/upper southwesterly flow spreading from the Great
   Basin into eastern MT. Pockets of seasonally moist boundary-layer
   dewpoints and stronger heating amid steep midlevel lapse rates will
   aid in diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorm will develop
   over terrain favored areas as well as ahead of an
   eastward-progressing cold front across eastern MT. Marginal vertical
   shear and sufficient instability will allow for isolated strong to
   severe storms capable of hail and strong outflow winds.

   ...Florida Peninsula...

   The southern extent of the eastern U.S. upper trough will linger
   over Florida today. Vertical shear will remain modest, but abundant
   boundary-layer moisture and heating will allow for moderate
   destabilization. Thunderstorm development will focus along sea
   breeze and outflow boundaries and a few wet microbursts could
   produce damaging gusts through early evening. Some of the more
   robust updrafts may also be briefly capable of small hail.

   ..Leitman/Thornton.. 05/24/2023

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