SPC AC 241243

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTERN NM/WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated very large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter), severe outflow
   gusts of 60-70 mph, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible
   this afternoon/evening across the southern High Plains.

   ...West TX/eastern NM this afternoon/evening...
   An overnight MCS is dissipating this morning while approaching
   southeast TX.  A broad swath of central/northwest TX was overturned
   by this MCS, and the richer low-level moisture has been displaced
   southwest to the Rio Grande and Pecos Valleys.  There will be
   gradual modification through the day across northwest TX, but the
   primary moisture return corridor will be around the periphery of the
   overnight MCS, from southwest TX into southeast NM.  Surface
   heating/mixing will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-3000 J/kg range and
   reduce convective inhibition along the dryline, which will allow at
   least widely scattered thunderstorm development later this
   afternoon.  Low-level east-southeasterly flow beneath midlevel
   westerlies will result in straight hodographs with effective bulk
   shear of 35-40 kt, which will favor splitting supercells capable of
   producing isolated very large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter) and
   isolated severe outflow gusts.

   Farther north, thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon
   near and just east of the Raton Mesa (along the NM/CO border). 
   Supercells with large hail and isolated severe outflow gusts will be
   possible initially, and storms may grow upscale into a cluster while
   spreading southeastward into the TX Panhandle.  The southeast extent
   of the severe threat tonight is uncertain and will depend on the
   degree of destabilization this afternoon across the Low Rolling
   Plains.

   ...Northern Great Basin to MT this afternoon/evening...
   Embedded vorticity maxima will rotate north-northeastward from NV to
   central MT, around the eastern periphery of a slow-moving midlevel
   trough from northern CA to eastern WA.  Lapse rates will not be as
   steep as yesterday, but surface heating in cloud breaks will drive
   SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg near and just east of a slow-moving front
   from northeast NV across southeast ID into central MT.  Thunderstorm
   development will be focused along and just east of this front, where
   modest enhancement to midlevel flow will support the potential for
   isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally
   severe hail with the strongest storms.

   ...Central/south FL this afternoon...
   A diffuse front across central FL, and local sea breeze
   boundaries/collisions farther south, will again support scattered
   thunderstorms this afternoon.  The stronger surface heating and
   larger CAPE/DCAPE will be confined to along and south of the front,
   where isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph and some
   hail will be possible.

   ..Thompson/Broyles.. 05/24/2023

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