May 24, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 24 19:42:15 UTC 2023 (20230524 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20230524 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20230524 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 16,244 125,648 Clovis, NM...Hereford, TX...Portales, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
SLIGHT 53,520 1,173,410 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...
MARGINAL 342,861 21,869,117 Denver, CO...Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...Tampa, FL...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20230524 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 18,643 186,995 Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Portales, NM...Lovington, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
2 % 37,012 792,882 Lubbock, TX...Odessa, TX...West Odessa, TX...Hereford, TX...Canyon, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20230524 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 34,776 851,338 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Plainview, TX...Hereford, TX...
5 % 350,556 18,495,769 Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20230524 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 41,740 680,943 Odessa, TX...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...West Odessa, TX...Hereford, TX...
30 % 16,244 125,648 Clovis, NM...Hereford, TX...Portales, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
15 % 47,624 1,125,073 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...
5 % 302,520 16,170,667 Denver, CO...Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Hialeah, FL...
   SPC AC 241942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z


   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern High
   Plains vicinity from 4 PM to Midnight CDT. A few intense supercells
   are anticipated and will be capable of very large hail. The threat
   for a few tornadoes should peak between 6 to 9 PM CDT and severe
   wind gusts between 8 to 11 PM CDT.

   Expectations for evolution of the convective/severe risk -- as laid
   out in prior forecasts -- remain valid at this time, with
   strong/isolated severe storms occurring across portions of the Great
   Basin, and expected development of High Plains convection in the
   next 1 to 2 hours anticipated.

   The primary adjustment in this update has been to expand the MRGL
   risk area slightly in portions of Nevada/Utah, to more thoroughly
   corral the evolving hail/wind risk.

   ..Goss.. 05/24/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023/

   ...Eastern NM and west TX...
   In the wake of an MCS last night, a residual outflow boundary
   extends northwest from central TX and has become more diffuse near
   the South Plains and east-central NM border area. Richer
   boundary-layer moisture has been displaced southwest of the outflow,
   with upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points common across the
   Permian Basin and Lower Pecos Valley. There will be gradual
   advection of this moisture to the north-northwest along the eastern
   NM/northwest TX border area. With very steep mid-level lapse rates
   of 9-9.5 C/km sampled by the 12Z MAF/ABQ soundings, relatively large
   buoyancy for the High Plains is anticipated at peak heating with
   MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg.

   Scattered thunderstorms are most likely to develop in the late
   afternoon to early evening in/off the Raton Mesa vicinity, with more
   isolated activity expected south across eastern NM into the
   Trans-Pecos. While some weakness in the hodograph is expected around
   700 mb, greater low-level curvature and speed shear above 700 mb
   relative to the past few days will yield a more elongated and
   relatively straight mid-upper hodograph. This should yield several
   discrete splitting supercells. Given the rather favorable CAPE/lapse
   rate environment, very large hail and potential for a few tornadoes
   appear increasingly probable. Storm-scale interference and eventual
   amalgamation of supercells, along with an evening increase in the
   low-level jet, should result in upscale growth and an increasing
   threat for severe wind gusts during the latter half of the evening.
   A southeast-moving MCS should emanate from the southwest TX
   Panhandle and northwest TX region, likely tracking near the outflow
   boundary from last night's MCS before weakening overnight.  
   ...Northern Great Basin to eastern MT...
   While a broad upper trough persists over the West, multiple embedded
   vorticity maxima will rotate north-northeast across the northern
   Great Basin to northern High Plains areas. These will aid in
   scattered to widespread thunderstorm development later this
   afternoon. Buoyancy will remain weak (except over eastern MT) and
   deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, especially with eastern
   extent. Sporadic strong to locally severe wind gusts should be the
   primary hazard, with a secondary threat for isolated marginally
   severe hail. 

   ...South/central FL...
   A diffuse front across central FL, and local sea breeze
   boundaries/collisions farther south, will again support scattered
   thunderstorms this afternoon. The stronger surface heating and
   larger MLCAPE will be confined to along and south of the front.
   Relatively cool mid-level temperatures near -11 C at 500 mb per 12Z
   MFL/TBW soundings should compensate for weak/weakening upper flow.
   Isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and small to marginally severe
   hail will be possible in the more robust clusters.