Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Denver, CO...Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Hialeah, FL...
SPC AC 241942
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern High
Plains vicinity from 4 PM to Midnight CDT. A few intense supercells
are anticipated and will be capable of very large hail. The threat
for a few tornadoes should peak between 6 to 9 PM CDT and severe
wind gusts between 8 to 11 PM CDT.
Expectations for evolution of the convective/severe risk -- as laid
out in prior forecasts -- remain valid at this time, with
strong/isolated severe storms occurring across portions of the Great
Basin, and expected development of High Plains convection in the
next 1 to 2 hours anticipated.
The primary adjustment in this update has been to expand the MRGL
risk area slightly in portions of Nevada/Utah, to more thoroughly
corral the evolving hail/wind risk.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023/
...Eastern NM and west TX...
In the wake of an MCS last night, a residual outflow boundary
extends northwest from central TX and has become more diffuse near
the South Plains and east-central NM border area. Richer
boundary-layer moisture has been displaced southwest of the outflow,
with upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points common across the
Permian Basin and Lower Pecos Valley. There will be gradual
advection of this moisture to the north-northwest along the eastern
NM/northwest TX border area. With very steep mid-level lapse rates
of 9-9.5 C/km sampled by the 12Z MAF/ABQ soundings, relatively large
buoyancy for the High Plains is anticipated at peak heating with
MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg.
Scattered thunderstorms are most likely to develop in the late
afternoon to early evening in/off the Raton Mesa vicinity, with more
isolated activity expected south across eastern NM into the
Trans-Pecos. While some weakness in the hodograph is expected around
700 mb, greater low-level curvature and speed shear above 700 mb
relative to the past few days will yield a more elongated and
relatively straight mid-upper hodograph. This should yield several
discrete splitting supercells. Given the rather favorable CAPE/lapse
rate environment, very large hail and potential for a few tornadoes
appear increasingly probable. Storm-scale interference and eventual
amalgamation of supercells, along with an evening increase in the
low-level jet, should result in upscale growth and an increasing
threat for severe wind gusts during the latter half of the evening.
A southeast-moving MCS should emanate from the southwest TX
Panhandle and northwest TX region, likely tracking near the outflow
boundary from last night's MCS before weakening overnight.
...Northern Great Basin to eastern MT...
While a broad upper trough persists over the West, multiple embedded
vorticity maxima will rotate north-northeast across the northern
Great Basin to northern High Plains areas. These will aid in
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development later this
afternoon. Buoyancy will remain weak (except over eastern MT) and
deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, especially with eastern
extent. Sporadic strong to locally severe wind gusts should be the
primary hazard, with a secondary threat for isolated marginally
A diffuse front across central FL, and local sea breeze
boundaries/collisions farther south, will again support scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. The stronger surface heating and
larger MLCAPE will be confined to along and south of the front.
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures near -11 C at 500 mb per 12Z
MFL/TBW soundings should compensate for weak/weakening upper flow.
Isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and small to marginally severe
hail will be possible in the more robust clusters.
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