May 28, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 28 16:29:52 UTC 2023 (20230528 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20230528 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20230528 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 33,679 295,203 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...
MARGINAL 284,032 4,270,266 Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...Amarillo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Midland, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20230528 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20230528 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 34,168 308,550 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Pampa, TX...
5 % 285,451 4,257,434 Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...Amarillo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Midland, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20230528 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 34,081 309,968 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Pampa, TX...
5 % 276,152 2,851,743 Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
   SPC AC 281629

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

   Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   WESTERN KANSAS...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western
   portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Hail and
   severe gusts will be the main hazards.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Relatively weak westerly mid-level winds are present today
   throughout the Plains states, with a trough moving across NE/KS.  A
   band of slightly stronger flow aloft wraps around the south side of
   the trough across parts of southern KS/northern OK (25-30 knots at
   500mb).  This region is likely to see widely scattered afternoon
   thunderstorm development - focused near several weak surface
   boundaries and instability gradients.  CAM guidance is diverse in
   the details of these storms, but there may be sufficient vertical
   shear for isolated organized multicell or perhaps supercell storms
   capable of large hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

   ...Dakotas to Texas...
   Surrounding the SLGT risk area, scattered thunderstorms are expected
   this afternoon and evening across much of the Plains region from the
   Dakotas to west Texas.  It is likely that small areas within this
   corridor will see occasional strong to severe storms capable of
   gusty winds and hail.  However, a combination of weak forcing
   mechanisms and only marginally favorable environment result in
   considerable uncertainty of timing/placement details.  Therefore
   will cover region with a broad MRGL risk.

   ...Eastern NC...
   A well defined surface low is currently just west of Cape Fear. 
   Visible satellite imagery shows clearing skies in the northeast
   quadrant of the low, where dewpoints in the low 70s will yield at
   least marginal CAPE values later today.  However, water vapor
   imagery shows considerable dry mid-level air wrapping into the
   system, and forecast soundings show slow warming of the 800-600mb
   layer.  This should tend to suppress robust convective development
   today.

   ..Hart/Weinman.. 05/28/2023

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