Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Louisville, KY...
SPC AC 300059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
CO/SOUTHEAST WY INTO PARTS OF NE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN KS...
...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of producing large hail and localized severe gusts
remain possible this evening from southeast Wyoming and the Colorado
Front Range into parts of the central High Plains. Some threat for
severe gusts and isolated hail may spread eastward across southern
Nebraska and northern Kansas overnight.
...Front Range and southeast WY into the central Plains...
A few supercells remain possible this evening from the Front Range
area and southeast WY into the central High Plains, within a
favorably moist and unstable post-frontal regime. MLCAPE in excess
of 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt will support a threat of
hail (possibly very large) with the strongest cells, and a tornado
or two will also be possible. See MCD 1347 and 1349 for more
information regarding the short-term threat.
Farther east, elevated buoyancy into parts of southern NE and
northern KS will be weaker compared to last night, in the wake of
extensive convection early this morning. However, MUCAPE of 1500
J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will still be sufficient to
support organized convection overnight. Some upscale growth this
evening across the central High Plains may result in eastward-moving
clusters overnight that would potentially track across
southern/central NE into northern KS, north of the primary surface
boundary. This could result in a threat for at least isolated severe
gusts and hail overnight, potentially spreading as far as northeast
MO and southwest IA prior to the end of the period.
...Parts of the OH Valley into TN/AL/MS...
A small cluster of elevated storms is ongoing from southeast IL into
southwest IN, well to the cool side of the composite outflow from
earlier convection. Elevated buoyancy and effective shear remain
favorable for organized convection, and this cluster may continue to
pose a threat of isolated hail and perhaps some strong wind gusts
into mid evening. See MCD 1348 for more information regarding the
short-term threat in this area.
A west-southwesterly low-level jet will maintain a warm-advection
regime to the east of the north-south oriented surface boundary this
evening into the overnight. There is some potential for the ongoing
southern IL/IN cluster to persist and propagate southward along the
instability axis, with a continued threat for at least isolated hail
and localized damaging gusts. Even if this cluster weakens,
additional development remains possible late tonight, with some
isolated severe threat potentially developing into a larger portion
of KY/TN, as stronger MUCAPE spreads eastward overnight.
..Dean.. 06/30/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
