Aug 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 5 05:51:02 UTC 2023 (20230805 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20230805 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20230805 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 74,421 3,072,362 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Broken Arrow, OK...Springdale, AR...Joplin, MO...
SLIGHT 228,134 15,599,236 Indianapolis, IN...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...
MARGINAL 278,258 18,816,320 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20230805 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 19,310 3,187,068 Indianapolis, IN...Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Bloomington, IN...Terre Haute, IN...
2 % 60,083 5,018,815 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Champaign, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20230805 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 80,675 2,603,922 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Amarillo, TX...Broken Arrow, OK...Enid, OK...
30 % 74,623 3,077,702 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Broken Arrow, OK...Springdale, AR...Joplin, MO...
15 % 202,277 10,850,945 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Lincoln, NE...
5 % 305,003 23,656,228 Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20230805 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 45,669 3,201,216 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
30 % 21,387 186,361 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Guymon, OK...Lamar, CO...
15 % 188,119 12,301,058 Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...
5 % 178,944 9,594,751 Oklahoma City, OK...Louisville, KY...Amarillo, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Evansville, IN...
   SPC AC 050551

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR
   FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND TOWARD
   SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   PLAINS...AND FROM INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds are expected from late
   afternoon through evening over much of the central Plains. Scattered
   severe storms will also be possible extending north across Nebraska
   and South Dakota, with isolated severe storms possible from Indiana
   southward toward Arkansas and western Tennessee.

   ...Synopsis...
   A belt of moderate westerly winds aloft will exist over the central
   Plains today, with an upper trough over the Dakotas. This trough
   will shift southeastward through Sunday morning, with 500 mb
   northwesterlies up to 50 kt persisting into KS and OK. A surface low
   will be located over southeast SD at 00Z, with a cold front
   extending southwestward across NE and into northeast CO. Farther
   south, a secondary low is forecast over the TX Panhandle where steep
   low-level lapse rates will develop with hot conditions. Low-level
   moisture will contribute to a large area of moderate instability
   across the region, but potential early day precipitation may
   stabilize parts of the area early in the day.

   Low-level winds will also increase late in the day east of the low
   into MN and IA, and will result in increased shear. A conditional
   severe risk may therefore exist, depending on instability. Another
   area of enhanced low-level shear will be with an MCV which will
   continue east across IL and IN, providing a focus for scattered
   strong to severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening.

   ...Central Plains...
   Early day precipitation is forecast over parts of KS, northern OK,
   possibly extending into southern MO and northern AR, as storms move
   eastward out of CO overnight. This will likely have stabilizing
   effects for much of the day. Strong heating will occur just south of
   there, from central OK across the TX Panhandle and into southern CO
   and all over NM and west TX. This may also maintain moist but weak
   easterly low-level flow which will aid storms over CO late in the
   afternoon. Storms are expected to form over parts of the Front Range
   around 20Z, and into southeast CO through early evening. An
   additional area of likely development will be within the heated air
   over the Panhandles and into western OK. Much of this area has a
   strong outflow signal from the models, and damaging gusts appear
   likely over the Enhanced Risk area. Corridors of gusts over 75 mph
   are expected. 

   Increasing mid to high level winds will also elongate hodographs,
   and favor significant hail with storms that remain cellular from the
   Panhandles into western OK and southwest KS. Otherwise, substantial
   outflow production from storm interactions will likely lead to
   strong to severe winds over the region, persisting overnight across
   KS, OK and perhaps into southwest MO/northern AR.

   ...Eastern SD/NE into southwest MN/western IA...
   Daytime rain/storms may occur across northern SD into ND, beneath
   the cool upper trough and where low-level convergence will remain
   robust near and north of the low. Stronger afternoon activity is
   likely to develop near the low, and may spread east as far as MN/IA
   by evening. A plume of MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg may reach into
   southeast SD, coincident with sufficient shear for a supercell or
   two. Any brief/weak tornado threat will be limited due to weak winds
   aloft, with most of the shear down low. Larger hail is more likely
   into NE, where both CAPE and deep-layer shear will be stronger.
   Damaging winds may also occur into the mid MO Valley.

   ...IL into IN...
   An MCV now moving across MO will continue east across IL today,
   reaching IN by late afternoon. Wind fields will be locally enhanced
   by this system, resulting in a small area of supercell potential,
   perhaps with isolated tornadoes. The tornado risk will be
   conditional on the instability plume and possible precipitation
   contamination. Even so, mid 70s F dewpoints will tend to counteract
   cooling effects, with low-level turning of winds with height near
   the MCV favoring rotation within the stronger storms. Severe storms
   are most likely after about 20Z over eastern IL, extending into
   central and southern IN through early evening. Models typically have
   a difficult time providing proper low-level shear resolution this
   far in advance with prominent MCVs.

   ..Jewell/Moore.. 08/05/2023

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