Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 150534
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over the southern High
Plains Friday afternoon and Friday night.
...Southern High Plains...
Southern influence of Four Corners short-wave trough will shift into
the southern Rockies later today. Latest model guidance maintains
seasonally strong 500mb flow across NM into central TX with speeds
on the order of 35kt during the afternoon/evening. Additionally,
substantial midlevel cooling will spread across NM by peak heating
where boundary layer lapse rates will be steepest along the western
fringe of higher PW air mass.
Early this morning, a weak midlevel disturbance was ejecting east
along the TX/NM border. This feature appears partly responsible for
small cluster of convection that has gradually organized near CVS.
This activity is forecast to propagate southeast toward the Big
Country by sunrise, then possibly continue southeast toward
south-central TX by afternoon. Strong heating south of the boundary
may result in additional surface-based storms evolving ahead of this
activity where temperatures rise into the mid 90s.
Weak upslope flow will persist across eastern NM today and strong
surface heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by
mid afternoon. Forecast soundings across this portion of the high
Plains exhibit supercell profiles with 35-40kt of surface-6km bulk
shear. Steep lapse rates favor robust updrafts and isolated
supercells are expected to develop then track southeast. Greatest
risk with this activity should be hail and gusty winds, though a
brief tornado can not be ruled out given the moist profiles and
favorable low-level turning.
...Upper MS Valley...
Narrow corridor of modest instability is expected to develop across
the upper MS Valley from southern MN into northwest WI, immediately
ahead of a progressive surface front. This boundary is supported by
a strong short-wave trough that is digging southeast across SK/MB
early this morning. Height falls ahead of this feature, along with
strong heating near the boundary, suggest isolated thunderstorms
could evolve by late afternoon. Forecast soundings do not exhibit
much instability but strong shear does favor some potential for
organization, albeit likely for only a few hours. Marginally severe
hail appears to be the greatest risk with the isolated storms that
evolve ahead of the front.
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