Kansas City, MO...Madison, WI...Overland Park, KS...Rockford, IL...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
110,647
7,500,655
Kansas City, MO...Madison, WI...Overland Park, KS...Rockford, IL...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
96,937
7,083,630
Kansas City, MO...Madison, WI...Overland Park, KS...Rockford, IL...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 161945
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms remain possible across a portion of
southeastern Texas, and will continue over parts of the central
Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
Few changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, as
current and anticipated evolution of convection remains in line with
prior expectations.
The primary changes in this outlook will trimming the MRGL risk area
and removal of hail probability in southeastern Texas, in line with
current convection evolution and motion, and also a slight
northwestward expansion of MRGL risk over the southeastern Minnesota
vicinity, where convection continues to develop just to the west of
the existing outlook area.
Otherwise, prior reasoning remains valid, across the CONUS.
..Goss.. 09/16/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/
...TX...
A long-lived MCS continues to track slowly southeastward across
central TX. These storms produced occasional strong-severe wind
gusts earlier this morning near/northwest of SJT. However, more
recent trends have shown a general decreasing trend. At least
remnants of the MCS are expected to persist through the day and
track southeastward toward the coast. However, given the relatively
weak winds aloft and lack of a more focused forcing mechanism, it is
likely that the overall severe threat will remain rather marginal.
Locally strong-damaging wind gusts will be the main risk.
...Central Plains into Mid MS Valley...
A relatively strong upper trough and associated surface cold front
is moving southeastward across parts of MN/WI/IA. By mid/late
afternoon, this front will extend from near the KS/NE border into
southern IA and southern WI. Scattered thunderstorm development
will occur along/ahead of the front, in a moderately unstable air
mass. Cool mid-level temperatures (-16 to -18C at 500mb) coupled
with dewpoints in the 60s may result in sufficiently favorable
thermodynamics for hail in the stronger updrafts. Steep low-level
lapse rates could also promote gusty winds. However, the overall
severe threat appears rather marginal at this time.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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