Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 171241
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH ATLANTIC
Isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible across
portions of the south Atlantic coastal plain this afternoon into
...South Atlantic coastal plain...
Within a highly elongated upper trough from QC to the Lower MS
Valley, primary shortwave impulses of interest will spread across
parts of the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through the period.
Minor deepening of a weak surface cyclone over central GA is
expected as it tracks northeast to the Outer Banks of NC tonight. In
the low-level warm advection regime ahead of this wave, a swath of
showers is ongoing from the western Carolinas into east GA. This
activity will likely persist through the day, mitigating the
northward extent of surface-based destabilization within a poor
mid-level lapse rate environment, especially over NC where surface
dew points are generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms are more probable farther south
over the SC/GA portion of the coastal plain after modest buoyancy
ensues. Isolated gusts from 40-60 mph will be the main threat.
An increase in low-level SRH should occur this evening into early
tonight, but likely be more pronounced along/north of the fringe of
surface-based instability over land. A low probability threat for a
brief tornado remains apparent, mainly across a portion of coastal
SC to the Outer Banks, with greater potential for supercells
producing waterspouts offshore.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z